Supplementary Exercise 6.115 of IPS7e ------------------------------------- Data: SAT scores of 500 high school students selected as a simple random sample from a certain population. Interest is in whether the population mean is larger than 450. Model: A simple random sample from a population with mean and standard deviation sigma, where sigma is known (sigma=100). In this situation it might actually be reasonable to assume the standard deviation to be known because large groups of students have been tested; the assumption is then that this particular population has the same standard deviation as the more general population. Hypotheses of interest are: H0: mu=450 Ha: mu>450 (because interest is whether this population performs better than 450; this motivation is not entirely clear to me) The test will be carried out at a 1% significance level (somewhat unusually). A power calculation for a hypothesized true mean of mu=460, corresponding to a hypothesized true difference between true mean and tested mean of 460-450=10. Minitab computation of power: MTB > Power; SUBC> ZOne; SUBC> Sample 500; SUBC> Difference 10; SUBC> Sigma 100; SUBC> Alternative 1; SUBC> Alpha 0.01. Power and Sample Size 1-Sample Z Test Testing mean = null (versus > null) Calculating power for mean = null + difference Alpha = 0.01 Assumed standard deviation = 100 Sample Difference Size Power 10 500 0.464032 Comments: --------- The computed power is 0.46. This means that there is a 46% chance of rejecting the null hypothesis (mu=450) based on a sample of 500 students if the true mean was 460. With such a fairly low power, we need a bit of "luck" to get significance, and a non-significant result could easily happen by chance (even if the null hypothesis is false). It would be fair to say that the sample of 500 students has insufficient power.