Supplementary Exercise 5.7 of IPS7e ----------------------------------- The number of accidents (X) has mean mu=2.2 and standard deviation sigma=1.4. It is a discrete distribution and therefore definitely not normal (a Poisson distribution would be one possibility). We consider the average number of accidents during 52 weeks (Xmean, for simplicity of notation denoted Y). (a) The central limit theorem (CLT) says that the average is approximately normally distributed with mean EY=EX=2.2 and standard deviation sdY=sdX/sqrt(52)=1.4/7.21=0.194. (b) Using the approximate normal distribution, we get P(Y<2) = P((Y-2.2)/.194 < (2-2.2)/0.194) = P(Z<-1.03) = 0.15, using table or software. (c) Fewer than 100 accidents per year corresponds to less than 100/52=1.923 accidents per week. We compute similarly P(Y<1.923) = P(Z<-1.43) = 0.077. The difference to the probability in (b) is substantial although the difference between 2 and 1.923 accidents per week seems small; relative to the standard deviation for Y it is however quite considerable. Minitab commands and output: ---------------------------- MTB > CDF 2; SUBC> Normal 2.2 0.194. Cumulative Distribution Function Normal with mean = 2.2 and standard deviation = 0.194 x P( X <= x ) 2 0.151287 MTB > CDF 1.923; SUBC> Normal 2.2 0.194. Cumulative Distribution Function Normal with mean = 2.2 and standard deviation = 0.194 x P( X <= x ) 1.923 0.0766697