Supplementary Exercise 2.67 of IPS7e ------------------------------------ Negative association between the number flu cases and the amount of ice cream sold across the weeks of a year. This is a simple example of an association derived from common response situation. This means that a third variable, here the season or weather corresponding to the weeks, affects both the variables of interest (number of flu cases and ice cream sales). The season/weather is clearly a confounding variable, and we would think that there is no real relation between the number of flu cases and the ice cream sales. Let y = ice cream sales x = flu cases z = season/weather We could then draw a diagram with the arrows: - arrow from z to x, - arrow from z to y, - but no arrow between y and x. --- Added note: There is almost no end to examples of this type. Here is another example (from the IPS textbook) - a positive association between the number of firefighters at a fire and the damage the fire does. Explain why we should not conclude from this information that sending more firefighters to a fire causes more damage.