Supplementary Exercises 5.51 and 5.53 of IPS7e ---------------------------------------------- (continuation of Exercise 5.49) We use the same notation as in the solution for 5.49, where X is the number of word errors caught by the proofreader out of the 20 in the essay, and Y=20-X is the number of word errors missed. The assumed distributions for X and Y are binomial B(20,0.7) and B(20,0.3), respectively. 5.51 ---- (a) By the formula for the mean of a binomial distribution EX = 20*0.7 = 14 EY = 20*0.3 = 6 (b) By the formula for the standard deviation of a binomial distribution sdX = sqrt(20*0.7*0.3) = sqrt(4.2) = 2.049 Note that this is also the standard devation of Y. (c) p=0.9: sd(X) = sqrt(20*0.9*0.1) = sqrt(1.8) = 1.342 p=0.99: sd(X) = sqrt(20*0.99*0.01) = sqrt(0.198) = 0.445 The standard deviation decreases (towards zero) as the probability gets close to 1 (or close to zero). 5.53 ---- In our notation, Y is the number of words missed, and Y ~ B(20,0.3). We are looking for the smallest number m so that P(Y>=m) is at most 0.05. From Exercise 5.49 we know that for m=9, that probability is 0.1133. We need to increase m to get a smaller probability. For m=10, the term 0.06537 will drop out of the summation (see item (b) of Exercise 5.49), so that P(Y>=10) = 0.03082 + 0.01201 + 0.00386 + 0.00102 + 0.00022 + 0 = 0.0479. Therefore, the desired value is m=10. The interpretation in the question of the event Y>=10 as evidence that the proofreader catches less than 70% of word errors comes from statistical testing of the null hypothesis H0: p=0.7 against the alternative Ha: p<0.7. This will be covered later in the course (and book), and the inclusion of such an interpretation here is an attempt to gradually introduce these ideas.