Supplementary Exercise 6.142 of IPS7e ------------------------------------- The explanation is not correct. Hypotheses are not true or false with certain probabilities, because there is no randomness associated with a hypothesis being true or false (according to the classical or 'frequentist' view of statistics; with the Bayesian view of statistics a different situation arises). The hypothesis is a statement about the true population parameter(s), which are fixed (and unknown). Therefore, a statement like mu=4.8 is either true or false, but this is a (fixed) fact of the true population. The randomness is associated with our observations (our sample from the population). A result being statistically significant at the 5% level means that the chance of getting data like those we observed would be at most 5% if the null hypothesis were true. The P-value is the probability of getting data like those we observed by chance alone (that is, if the null hypothesis were still true). As is stated also on slide 6L-4, the P-value expresses how surprising the observed outcome would be if H0 was true. An essentially correct way of explaining statistically significant in a similar format is (based on IPS 7e, Exercise 6.127): A result being significant tells us that it cannot easily be explained by chance alone.